Date | Topic | Learning goals students | Homework (in advance of the class meetings) | Activities in Class |
23 April 2020, 9-10h | Introduction and overview of the seminar | Understand the aim and topic of the course | - Read detailed syllabus + admission policy
- Students: Prepare questions related to course
| - Instructors answer all questions, incl. admission + exam policy + group work
- References to examples of predictions made (Sprinz and BdM (2015)
|
30 April 2020, 9-10h | Introduction to Reuther STC GmbH | Understand the company’s perspective and the challenge of being sustainable | - Readings steel sector
- Investigate company
- Prepare questions
- Familiarize with Moodle 2
| Mr. Klingelstein to dial in, present the company + Q&A |
30 April 2020, 10:15-11:00h | The Predictioneer’s Game (PG): Logic & Overview | Basic understanding of overall functions and functioning of PG & Architecture | - Watch a set of videos from BdM
- Readings:
- BdM 2009, ch. 3 (29-46)
- Bueno de Mesquita (2010) (34 pages)
- Sprinz et al. (2016) (16 pages)
| - Check if general introduction of audio, videos and readings were understood + see first unclear points
- Show input & output files
|
7 May 2020, 9:00-10:00h | PG: Input Data | Detailed understanding of the input data (conceptual) (actor, potential influence, position, salience, flexibility, veto) | - Watch a set of videos from BdM
- Bueno de Mesquita (2011) (23 pages)
- Bueno de Mesquita (2009), ch. 4 (47-65)
| - In-class exercise on position (all) and other scales (divided in groups): The Corona policy challenge
- Test for understanding of inputs as well as overall architecture
|
7 May 2020, 10:30-11:30h | PG: Output Data | Detailed understanding of the output files ( conceptual) | - Read centrally provided outputfiles for Module 5 (but no input file supplied)
| - Use example from Sprinz & BdM (2015)
- Questions in class concerning output file/ group work
- Answer open questions
- Test for understanding of outputs
- Explain veto in detail (example)
|
14 May 2020, 9:00-10:00h | Prediction: Carbon Pricing | Presentation of the particular issue to be predicted | Readings and other background material on the issue | Presentation via Zoom, ideally by expert |
14 May 2020, 10:15-12:00h | PG: Running the Software | - Interpreting outputs
- Learn to determine whether veto is exercised or not
| - Submit PG input file to Moodle 2
- BdM 2009, 11 (only 215-226)
| Practice session: Run the PG - Use input files from module 4 on corona virus
- Students will be split into groups (of 3) and are assigned a timeslot working with DS & MA
|
15 May 2020, 9:00-10:30h (additional meeting) | Prediction: Developing the Scales | | Student submit first ideas on the position/influence scale to Moodle Read BdM (2009), Ch. 5 (66-85) | Development of the position/influence scale; discussion of the approach for all other input scales |
28 May, 9:00-10:15h | Introduction to Sustainability Strategies for companies; Introduction to Stakeholder Map; | What is sustainability? Why should a company act sustainably? How do you measure sustainability? Creation of Stakeholder Map | - Readings on Sustainability
- Stakeholder Map
| |
4 June 2020, 9:00-10:00h | Presentation: Individual Actor Papers | | Submission of Actor Papers and Presentation until June, 1st | Discussion: Individual Actor Papers |
4 June 2020, 10:15-11:15h | Strategic Analysis & Scenario building | o Creation of SWOT o Benchmark analysis o Gap Analysis o Scenario Analysis | - Upload SWOT Analysis for Reuther STC
- Read Article on Business Strategy
- HBR Strategy Case Study
| |
11 June 2020, 9:00-10:15h | Presentation: Group Prediction Papers | | Submission of Prediction Papers and Presentation files | Presentation/ Discussion: Group Prediction Papers |
11 June 2020, 10:15-11:15h | Business Strategy & Strategy Implementation | o Drafting an implementation plan for Reuther STC & Deriving To-Do List | | |
18 June 2020, 9:00-10:00h (or individually) | Coaching of teams on their analysis & implementation plan |
23 June 2020, 15:15-16:45 | Final presentations and barbecue. | | | |