What exactly does “foresight-driven innovation” mean, and why is this approach so relevant today?
“Foresight-driven innovation” combines strategic foresight with user-centered innovation. Instead of merely reacting to current trends, this approach aims to proactively develop alternative future scenarios and derive innovation potential from them that addresses future user needs. In a world of increasing uncertainty and complexity, FDI enables companies to prepare for potential changes at an early stage and develop sustainable strategies.
Many companies respond to trends. What is the difference between trend observation and strategic foresight?
Trend observation often focuses on identifying and tracking current developments, as well as examining individual developments, e.g., technological ones. Strategic foresight, on the other hand, goes one step further: it analyzes profound drivers of change across different areas, develops holistic, alternative future scenarios, and identifies long-term opportunities and risks from them. While trend observation is often reactive, strategic foresight enables proactive shaping of the future.
How can future scenarios be integrated into innovation processes in a practical way?
The FDI approach uses future scenarios to generate creative ideas for products, services, or business models. These scenarios serve as a starting point for innovation processes in which methods such as design thinking are used to develop concrete solutions that are both future-oriented and user-centered. This bridges the gap between long-term foresight and practical innovation.
What typical errors in thinking or obstacles do you encounter in organizations when it comes to “shaping the future”?
Common challenges in organizations are:
- Short-term thinking: Focus on quick results instead of long-term strategies.
- Silo thinking: Lack of cross-departmental cooperation.
- Fear of uncertainty: Reluctance to deal with seemingly uncertain future scenarios and clinging to the one expected future.
- Lack of resources: Limited time and funds for strategic foresight.
- Lack of strategic integration: Dealing with future scenarios is seen as “nice to have” rather than a strategic imperative.
These hurdles can be overcome through a systematic approach, proven methods, targeted workshops, and a culture of open thinking.
Many people describe today’s outlook on the future as fragile or uncertain. How does the current wave of AI adoption influence the way organizations think about their future?
In many organizations, AI acts like a magnifying glass. It makes existing uncertainties about markets, regulation, and value creation more visible. While AI promises efficiency and acceleration, it also reveals how unclear many organizations are about the future they are actually preparing for.
We often see strong activity, but limited orientation. AI initiatives are driven by what is technically possible rather than by a shared understanding of future user needs or strategic direction. The result is experimentation without coherence – many pilots, but little clarity.
At the same time, AI forces organizations to confront fundamental questions about work, responsibility, and decision-making. Without a future-oriented frame, these questions tend to be addressed reactively or postponed. This is where foresight becomes critical. By exploring different plausible futures, organizations can step back from short-term pressure and make more deliberate choices about where and how AI creates meaningful value
AI is often discussed as if it represented one clear future. From a foresight perspective, how should organizations actually think about AI when working with future scenarios?”
In foresight, we are less interested in predicting how a single technology will develop, and more interested in how different forces interact under uncertainty. AI is a good example of this. While we don’t know exactly how AI will evolve, it is very likely that it will play a significant role in many future contexts.
Rather than building scenarios around AI itself, we treat it as a shaping factor that unfolds differently across alternative futures. The key question is not whether AI will exist, but what role it will play under different conditions.
For example, in a future with strong regulation and high societal oversight, AI may be primarily used to support decision-making, increase transparency, or augment human expertise. In a future with weak regulation and strong market pressure, AI might instead drive automation, efficiency, and competitive acceleration – with very different implications for work, trust, and responsibility.
By exploring these differences, scenarios help organizations move beyond abstract debates about AI. They make it possible to discuss concrete choices: which applications are desirable, which risks are acceptable, and where human judgment remains essential. This perspective ensures that AI is considered as part of a broader future context – not as a standalone solution.
What can participants take away from the your workshop „Foresight-Driven Innovation”, both professionally and personally?
Professionally:
- Methodological expertise in strategic foresight and innovation development.
- Ability to create future scenarios and integrate them into innovation processes.
- Tools for identifying and evaluating future opportunities.
Personally:
- Strengthening one's own future thinking and innovative ability.
- Expanding one's network through interdisciplinary exchange.
- Motivation to actively shape the future of one's own company.
Thank you very much for the interview, Selina and Dominik!
