Strategic Foresight: learning to think ahead

Strategic foresight is a systematic approach to dealing with uncertainty and developing possible future scenarios. As an organization, I can apply strategic foresight by conducting in-depth analyses and long-term forecasts of environmental developments and trends. The central question here is: How do we think about the future? In times of multiple crises and uncertainties, simply looking at the past is not enough to predict the future. Instead, there are always breaks and discontinuities in developments.  

Strategic foresight arose from this realization: no one really foresaw the oil crisis of 1973. Stemming from this situation of uncertainty, Economist Harry Igor Ansoff developed the concept of weak signals. These signals can indicate discontinuities and changes. They are “weak” because they are not major trends, but instead ambiguous and merely indicate that changes could occur. The art of strategic foresight therefore lies in separating “noise” from actual weak signals.  

We live in uncertain times – who knows what tomorrow will bring? Strategic foresight is not a miracle cure for predicting the future. The good news is that strategic foresight allows us to explore various possible futures and derive options for action from them. The important thing is that it is not just about reacting to developments but thinking ahead in a structured way. This means that strategic foresight gives us a clear picture of what is happening and at the same time enables us to take action to deal with whatever the future might bring.

Nowadays, many people and organizations feel overwhelmed by the flood of information and do not think about the future because they are constantly busy reacting to the here and now. With strategic foresight, we stand up to major challenges, which perhaps is more important now than ever before.  

First, it is important to clarify that strategic foresight and Design Thinking are different concepts. Nevertheless, we incorporate elements of strategic foresight at several points in the Design Thinking process, as they add perspectives of the longer-term time horizon.  

As part of a problem analysis, we look to the past to understand what has happened so far. We use this knowledge to develop scenarios that could happen in possible futures. In doing so, we not only focus on existing developments, but also try to anticipate what could happen in a time horizon of ten to fifteen years.

At the d-school, we want to teach our students to develop a sensitivity for different futures, which they should also take into account when designing their innovations. In order to develop an innovation that will still work and people will still need in ten years' time, it is important to envision not only our current users, but also our future users. What needs will they have? What technologies might have been developed by then? 

In the context of testing, this means that we also invite experts to test our products. For example, when we develop a prototype for a new learning method for students, of course it is important to get feedback from potential users of this learning method. However, the assessment of an expert, in this case an educator, is just as crucial, as they are well placed to evaluate the long-term developments of learning methods. This is how Design Thinking becomes a strategic innovation process.  

Thank you very much!